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earthquake geology news this shit is fucked up

Scientists convicted of manslaughter for failing to be psychic

Words cannot begin to express how upset, angry, and filled with contempt I am by this:
Italian scientists resign over L’Aquila quake verdicts

Two scientists resigned their posts with the government’s disaster preparedness agency Tuesday after a court in L’Aquila sentenced six scientists and a government official to six years in prison. The court ruled Monday that the scientists failed to accurately communicate the risk of the 2009 quake, which killed more than 300 people.

We wish we could predict earthquakes. We really, really do. So many lives could be saved. But there is as of yet no way to make those kind of predictions. A series of small earthquakes? Depending upon how you define it, those occur all the time. Hell, we can only sort of predict the imminent eruption of a volcano, and the mechanics of that, the pressures that dictate an eruption, are relatively simpler and there are far more “tells” – seismic activity, increased outgassing, etc.

Nature agrees: 

There will be time enough to ponder the wider implications of the verdict, but for now all efforts should be channelled into protest, both at the severity of the sentence and at scientists being criminalized for the way their opinions were communicated. Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States

Hey Italy, while you’re jailing people for failing to predict disasters, how about extraditing the horrendous human beings who played fast and loose with the financial markets and caused the global economy to shit itself? That had far more potential for being predicted and arguably has caused even more human suffering. What about jailing people who have refused to listen to repeated warnings about global climate change?

Or I suppose this pattern could continue and the next time a doctor fails to predict a heart attack, or a traffic cop fails to predict an accident, they’ll end up in jail.

This is ridiculous. Contemptible.

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earthquake geology japan

The Sendai Earthquake

I haven’t had anything to say about the Sendai earthquake; it has quite literally left me speechless with horror, and pain, and agonizing worry. I know and care about people who live there. I’ve been to Japan twice, myself, and hope to travel there many more times in the future. There is something more personally horrible about knowing a place – if even a little – remembering its sights and sounds and smells, and knowing that something terrible has happened there.

I can’t really focus enough to think about the science behind what has happened. If you’re interested in the details, the USGS is the place to go. Or Chris Rowan has an excellent synthesis of the data at Scientific American.

Garry at Geotripper has tried to put things in a perspective of why the geosciences really are important to each and every one of us, whether we realize it or not. It’s an excellent post. You should read it. The one thing that really stuck with me is:

Many will watch an event like this unfold and try to find some meaning. In one sense, there was no meaning; this was something the Earth does.

There is a quote that I have in my e-mail signature, which I’ve seen attributed to Will Durant – though there’s a good argument that it’s probably an anonymous quote:

Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice.

The Earth is so very, very old, and so very, very vast. We are tiny, and frail, and even the longest life any one of us can hope to have is less than the blink of an eye in the history of our planet. The Earth does not care about us. We have no special significance. We have only each other.

(photo from Getty Images)

In a way, studying geology has been the most humbling experience of my life. There is not a day that goes by that I am not reminded that our world operates at a scale that we cannot even begin to grasp, and that it did so long before we existed, and will continue on long after the last human is gone.

I’ve seen people – and here I use the term loosely – cheer, as if this is some sort of cosmic vengeance for Japanese misdeeds during World War II. I have seen others try to use this tragedy to justify the self-satisfied little voice in their head that they think is god, but is only actually themselves. First I was angry. Now, I’m just sick. I’m sick that there are people so small-minded and cruel that they take joy in the suffering of others. I’m sick, and worried, and I hurt for my fellow humans who are in so much pain, and so far away.

There is no meaning to the Sendai earthquake. There is no capricious god, no vast karmic wheel. It is simply a thing that has happened, that we as humans must struggle against, and fight to overcome, and mourn those who have died afterward. Because there is nothing more to it – it’s just the summation of physics and time – what we do is so very important. We have only this world, only this life, and only each other.

(photo from the Sacramento Bee)

Doctors Without Borders
Red Cross
Japan America Society of Colorado

Categories
earthquake stoopid volcano

Italy in Geological News

First a volcano-related item: How did the victims of the Plinean Eruption of Vesuvius die – a summary from io9, of an article assessing how the victims of the Vesuvius eruption died. It will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with how freaking scary pyroclastic flows are that they died from being flash-cooked by the extreme heat of the flow, rather than suffocated by it.

And then, Italian scientists who failed to predict L’Aquila earthquake may face manslaughter charges. Argh. Argh argh argh. Considering how inherently unpredictable earthquakes are – more unpredictable than volcanic eruptions or tsunami – I was primed to be ticked off from the instant I read the headline. The article mentions foreshocks (one of them a 4.0) but the problem there is that you can only really classify a foreshock in hindsight. Was the magnitude 4.0 the prelude to a bigger earthquake, or an earthquake in its own right? There’s no way of knowing for certain until after you get hit by (or fail to be) by a much larger quake.

“Those responsible are people who should have given different answers to the public,” said Alfredo Rossini, L’Aquila’s public prosecutor. “We’re not talking about the lack of an alarm, the alarm came with the movements of the ground. We’re talking about the lack of advice telling people to leave their homes.”

This is the ultimate in damned if you do, damned if you don’t situations. If you warn people to leave their homes because a natural disaster is imminent and it doesn’t happen, you catch flak – think about the complaining that came after the tsunami that did hit Hawaii wasn’t the monster wall of water that makes up journalistic wet-dreams. But if you don’t tell people to clear out of their homes because there’s the possibility of an inherently unpredictable event occurring, then you get in trouble for that as well. Hindsight is 20/20, particularly when it comes to earthquakes. Though this:

At a press conference after the meeting, government official Bernardo De Bernardinis, deputy technical head of the Civil Protection Agency, told reporters that “the scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable.” In addition to the six scientists, De Bernardinis is also under investigation.

Also really doesn’t help. Small earthquakes might release some stress on a fault, but that also might add stress to a different portion of the same fault, or another fault nearby. The environment of stress and faulting that goes on beneath us is too uncontrolled and not well mapped enough to allow for the incredibly accurate modeling you’d need to be able to say something like that. So if that’s something the seismologists in question were telling the government, shame on them. But I also have a hard time imagining any geologist worth his or her salt saying that unless they were simultaneously on some kind of mind-altering drug regimen, so I’d really like to know just who in the “scientific community” De Bernardinis was referring to. For all I know, the “scientific community” is a bright blue space elf that only he can see.

What a horrible situation. And way to make “Italian seismologist” a very unappealing job title.

Categories
earthquake

Earthquake Q&A

There’s a Q&A in the Washington Post with Dr. Michael Blanpied, who is a geophysicist with the USGS earthquake hazards program.

He answered all of the questions really well, I think, which covered some things I’ve been hearing a lot lately – mostly about animals predicting earthquakes (answer: not really) and if earthquakes have been increasing in frequency.

Native Californian: Are there REALLY more and/or stronger earthquakes and tsunamis lately, or are they just better reported than decades ago (especially the ones occurring in remote land areas or under-sea)?

Dr. Michael Blanpied: There are really three main reasons why we’re seeing more news about deadly earthquakes. First is that the quality of reporting is much higher. Second is that we’re able to record them better due to global digital seismic networks that report data in real time. Third is that more and more people live in quake-prone areas, so earthquakes are more likely to strike vulnerable populations than was the case decades ago.

It’s not surprising that the frequency of quakes is on peoples’ minds right now, considering we’ve had two major earthquakes that have been well-covered by the media in two months. I can’t even begin to imagine the general freak-out level if this were 2012 instead of 2010.

Categories
earthquake

It must be disappointing the tsunami didn’t kill thousands.

I had a very, very busy weekend, plus I don’t actually have broadcast or cable television in my house – Mike and I survive quite well with just an Xbox 360 and Netflix. So thankfully, I missed out on most of the burning stupid that characterized the coverage of the post-Chile quake tsunami. I think this article makes a fine example, though: Scientists defend warning after tsunami nonevent

“Nonevent,” my butt.

There is some wonderfully comprehensive ranting over at Geotripper about the tooth-grinding stupidity. Since Mr. Hayes has also subjected himself to the awful coverage that I’ve been able to mostly avoid, I definitely recommend reading his posts.
The Hawaii Tsunami a Nonevent? I Don’t Think So…
I Have a Dream… in which the 24 Hour Cable New Networks Serve a Useful Purpose

Indeed, sir. Indeed.

I’m glad that the people who were involved in the evacuation seem to be taking the right attitude about it.

Residents and tourists alike said they weren’t bothered by the evacuation and supported the scientists’ actions — even though the waves never showed up.

“We lost a lot of business,” said Sam Stewart of the Nohea Gallery in Honolulu, which closed for much of the day Saturday. “But it is good to know that the island has it together. We don’t want to make this a regular drill, but it’s good to know we can get prepared. … Now it’s important to get back to business.”

I’m just seriously concerned that if this “scientists cry wolf” drumbeat keeps going, the right attitude won’t be present the next time there needs to an evacuation. One would think that “better safe than sorry” is the best attitude to take, in a situation when there is no such thing as 100% certainty and the potential for destruction and loss of life is high. But I suppose that would be the adult attitude to have, as opposed to petulant disappoint at the lack of something explodey to show repeatedly on a news station.

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cats earthquake

Return of DeathCat

Doctor casts new light on cat that can predict death. Oy.

For the most part, it sounds like the doctor is trying to focus on the comfort that the cat can provide terminal patients. Which is good. I’m a big believer in the wonders of a fluffy, purring, shredding machine. But this?

When Oscar was about six months old the staff noticed that he would curl up to sleep with patients who were about to die.

So far he has accurately predicted about 50 deaths.

Sigh. I’d really like to know just what they mean by “accurately.” Does the cat only hang out with people who are about to kick the bucket? Does everyone he sleeps near die within a certain amount of time? Cats sleep an awful lot… I realize he’s at a nursing home and all, but are patients dropping like flies there? Or does he just sleep by himself until it’s time for someone to kick the bucket?

I realize that it’s just a fluff article with a cute picture of the DeathCat, but still.

“I don’t think Oscar is that unique, but he is in a unique environment. Animals are remarkable in their ability to see things we don’t, be it the dog that sniffs out cancer or the fish that predicts earthquakes. Animals know when they are needed.”

Fish predict earthquakes? I actually googled this. And found another fluff article about Oscar, the earthquake-predicting fish.

By the way, an okay summation of the “animals predicting earthquakes” thing can be found here, courtesy of National Geographic. That Rupert Sheldrake is an advocate of this idea makes me a little suspicious to begin with.1

A reproducible connection between animal behavior and earthquakes could be made, he said, but “as the Chinese have discovered, not all earthquakes cause unusual animal behavior while others do. Only through research could we find out why there might be such differences.”

So… animals can predict some earthquakes but not others? Now, I confess, I am no expert on earthquakes, so I could very well be wrong. But at its most basic, an earthquake is an earthquake is an earthquake. Either you’ve got seismic waves of some magnitude or you don’t. Maybe you could argue that large earthquakes with a lot of foreshocks might be in a different category, but that’s also the sort of thing you can observe with seismographs – and sadly, lots of little earthquakes aren’t necessarily a predictor of a big one, or we’d be able to predict big earthquakes ourselves and wouldn’t be worrying about what the animals think.

Honestly, I’d be willing to buy the idea of animals reacting to foreshocks if there were a decent explanation for it that’s backed up with actual evidence or at the least a plausible mechanism. Animals interact with and observe the environment differently than us, so I can certainly believe that they can notice things that we don’t and react to them. But when we’re talking a situation where one time, dogs howled, an another time, a bunch of hibernating snakes woke up, and this other time the cattle were restless, the inconsistency really doesn’t help the case. It just ends up sounding like a lot of confirmation bias to me, kind of like Oscar the DeathCat.

My new hypothesis is that animals named Oscar are psychic. My sample size of two confirms it.

1 – Yes, this is technically me committing a genetic fallacy, but darnit, people. I’m a writer, not a philosopher.

Categories
earthquake

USNS Comfort goes to Haiti

I checked this morning and was relieved to see that the Comfort has been ordered to Haiti and is expected to arrive on the 20th or 21st. I just wish that it could get there sooner. If you haven’t heard of the Comfort before, here’s some information, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Probably because I’ve been in Denver most of my life, I know very little about what sort of ships we’ve got. I only even heard of the Comfort because my Uncle Charles pointed it out to me the first time I went to Baltimore for Otakon, which involved me visiting my family there as well. We were driving past the shipyards and he pointed to what looked like a white building with a giant red cross on it jutting up between the cranes, and told me that was the Comfort, settled in at her home port. My Uncle was career navy (now retired) and did electrical work on the ship. I could tell he was proud of her when he pointed her out. I think he has every reason to be.

Also: Richard Dawkins has set up a donation fund to take yet another stab at the tired old lie that atheists are uncaring and don’t give. He’s covering up to $10,000 of the Paypal fees. The money will go to Doctors Without Borders and the Red Cross.

Categories
earthquake

Thoughts on Haiti

The tragedy caused by the earthquake (a pretty shallow one, at about 13km depth per the USGS tracker) is just breaking my heart, over and over again. I’ve already donated some money to the American Red Cross International Response Fund, and I’m hoping to make a second donation after taking a look at our financial status tomorrow. (A good list of other relief agencies here.)

Looking at this from a scientific perspective, it highlights the destructive power of faulting within the Earth’s crust. That the large quake and its aftershocks have all been shallow (10-13 km deep) means that there is less dissipation of the seismic waves when they hit the surface. So we end up with a high magnitude earthquake (of 7.0) that releases a lot of energy, and since it’s so close to the surface – and so close to a populated area – the intensity of it is unimaginable. The British Geological Society has a simple fault map of the area; this quake occurred along a transform fault, similar to the San Andreas in the US. The BGS informational statement is also a good overview:

The fault in this case is called the Enriquillo- Plantain Garden fault. This fault has been locked for the last 250 years gradually accumulating stress which has now been released in a single large earthquake.

What strikes me here is that the fault has only been locked for 250 years – barely even the blink of an eye in geologic time – and that let it accumulate enough stress to blow out in a 7.0. The Caribbean Plate is much more active and under much more stress than I ever realized, though I suppose I should have. (I think the massive Pacific Plate tends to steal all the fame.)

The geology is honestly the only thing in this situation that isn’t heart-breaking or rage-inducing. It’s the only thing I can really be rational about. If I believed in Hell, I’d be reserving a special place in it for Rush Limbaugh, who is transforming himself from the fascist gasbag I idly hate when I don’t have anything better to do with my time to someone that should simply have his membership in our species revoked. Pat Robertson has also come out to remind us that he’s a giant douchebag, which leaves me unspeakably angry as well. BoingBoing’s assessment of Haiti’s real deal with the Devil, inspired by Pat “Douchebag” Robertson, has left me upset to the point that I cannot even coherently express my opinion on this bit of history.

At this point, there’s really nothing left for people like me to do but give.

And hope.

Also: BoingBoing’s link roundup for day two.

EDIT: Reponse by the Haitian ambassador to the US to Pat “Douchebag” Robertson.