Categories
climate change grad school

The great geological fart

Yes, I know, this is why you read my blog, because I’m informative AND classy.

I’ve finally started doing my initial readings for my grad school project, which I really should have gotten moving on months ago. I don’t know if being out of school for eight months has just destroyed my ability to manage my time, or maybe I lack the sense of urgency that actually being in school and having solid due dates provides. Either way, I’m trying to read a couple per day.

What I’ll be working on in grad school is a project examining the local change in climate in the Bighorn Basin during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Here’s something of a broad summary at io9 of the PETM and why it’s significant, but if you’re too lazy to read even that extremely conversational post, the one sentence summary is: Temperature went up, a lot of species died, and there are many suspected parallels between those events and the climate change we are facing today. So the PETM is an area of current interest in a lot of fields, because it may further our understanding of current environmental events.

In the io9 article, the emphasis is on the catastrophic event that might have thrown the environment out of whack, either massive volcanic activity or a meteor impact. I think that tends to give the events of the PETM a little less urgency on the surface, since today we’re not facing world-altering volcanic activity OR a meteor strike. Instead, we’re facing whatever threat our own fossil-fuel burning activities might cause. Whatever the ultimate carbon contribution to the atmosphere, billions of humans tooling around in cars is certainly less… well, dramatic than seas of basalt flooding large swathes of the continents.

The articles I’ve read so far have been interesting because the focus hasn’t been on a big, sexy, catastrophic kick-off for all of the carbon that caused the rapid (4-8 degrees C ocean surface temperature rise in a few thousand years) temperature increase, but rather a sort of positive feedback loop from degassing of methane hydrates in continental shelf and deep ocean sediments. This is supported by examining carbon isotope ratios, which show distinct, rapid (geologically speaking) shifts in the ratios that might show multiple pulses of carbon input (Bains et al 1999). This sort of geologically instantaneous is pretty much consistent with either an impact or methane hydrate dissociation. And since we’re looking at possibly several discrete events it’s unlikely that every one of them was an impact.

The most interesting paper I’ve read so far is from 2002; it only looks at a single site, but the isotope data there indicates that there was a brief period of ocean surface warming prior to the massive methane release – the great geological fart, so to speak (Thomas et al). Of course another of the papers suggests that methane hydrate dissociation doesn’t necessarily have to be thermally triggered; a significant amount of methane could be released because of submarine seismic or volcanic activity, or even gravitational slumping (Bains et al).

So the scenario that these papers build up is that something triggered the release of a large amount of methane into the atmosphere. It did what greenhouse gases tend to do, and this might have caused a reinforcing effect that could have lead to more methane getting put into the atmosphere. And then things got hot and uncomfortable. Of course, the initial cause of the methane hydrate dissociation is still a matter of question. Maybe it was seismic activity, or an impact that started this chain reaction, so to speak, and the methane release just added insult to injury. The Thomas et al paper suggests that the dissociation was thermally caused (as indicated by the brief period of surface warming prior to carbon being dumped into the the atmosphere), and that’s really the most worrying scenario. Because if we’re looking at temperature driven methane dissociation, the ultimate source of that temperature change at the end of the Permian wouldn’t be relevant in today’s world – it would be the temperature change happening at all, and driving further warming.

Sea surface temperature already is increasing. At the site in the Thomas paper, they’re estimating about a 2 degree C surface temperature increase before the methane hydrates dissociated and made a beeline for the atmosphere. We’re not really that far off from that sort of increase in some areas of the ocean right now. (Of course, what the surface temperature was at the time is not stated and may not be something we know for certain.) The real take home is that it very well could be a positive feedback situation: you get a little warming, it sets off a big geological fart, that adds up to more greenhouse effect and more warming, and pretty soon the Earth starts sounding like it had the baked bean special at the Chuckwagon last night.

Now, these are of course only a few papers, and this is a complicated subject. The mechanisms for warming in the PETM are still a subject of great debate, and new data is coming in constantly. But it’s certainly something to think about. There very well may be lot more carbon waiting out there than just what we’re burning to run our cars and power our cities, and it could be waiting for a thermal cue to bubble up to the surface and make things quite unpleasant for thousands of years to come.

Silent but deadly, indeed.

ETA: A very nice anonymous commenter pointed me toward a summary of the current research (as of 2008) on the methane hydrate issue. It’s still a very viable hypothesis and the challenge remains figuring out exactly how a massive methane burp would relate to the ocean warming, and exactly how much carbon we’re talking about, here. Also:

…no study has uniquely demonstrated that oxidized CH4 (or another compound) was the source of the carbon addition. There are also issues regarding the mass of carbon injected during the PETM, and whether gas hydrates at this time could furnish such a quantity.

So there are still questions that need to be answered. But I’d say the three papers I read here are still pretty much in line with the main body of the research, including the questions still remaining to be answered.

Articles:

Warming the fuel for the fire: Evidence for the thermal dissociation of methane hydrate during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Deborah Thomas, et al. Geology; December 2002.

A Transient Rise in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. James C. Zachos, et al. Science 302 (2003). DOI: 10.1126/science.1090110

Mechanisms of Climate Warming at the End of the Paleocene. Santo Bains, et al. Science 285 (1999). DOI: 10.1126/science.285.5428.724

Categories
climate change

From Science: Climate Change and the Integrity of Science

Over at Science There’s a letter with a veritable laundry list of signers regarding the recent (and not so recent) unconscionable attack on climate science by the media, politicians, and others. It’s very much worth the time it takes to read.

We also call for an end to McCarthy-like threats of criminal prosecution against our colleagues based on innuendo and guilt by association, the harassment of scientists by politicians seeking distractions to avoid taking action, and the outright lies being spread about them. Society has two choices: We can ignore the science and hide our heads in the sand and hope we are lucky, or we can act in the public interest to reduce the threat of global climate change quickly and substantively.

Well said.

First seen over at Geotripper.

Categories
climate change

Just went I thought you couldn’t sink any lower, Cuccinelli

First, there was Cuccinelli and his anti-gay dickery. Then he jumped on to the healthcare reform lawsuit band wagon. Then he let us all in on his nipple phobia. Oh Ken Cuccinelli, is there no nuttery you will not force me to look at an say, “…seriously?”

And now he’s after a climate change scientist. Oh my stars and garters. Cuccinelli has come across pretty steadily as a climate change denier, so investigating Michael Mann for “defrauding taxpayers” over grants for global warming research carries a nasty whiff of intimidation. Don’t like the science? Attack the scientist’s reputation. Anyway, I think Phil lays it all out quite nicely.

I do have to say one thing I’ve found interesting on Phil’s post is the comments. Because as you would expect, the minute the Bad Astronomer tippy-tapped out:

To be clear: the climate is changing. There is zero doubt about that. None. Anyone telling you differently has an agenda to ram, and it’s one that is decidedly not realistic.

…the trolls and deniers came scooting out of their dark corners of the internet. What’s fascinating me is how disjointed some of the comments seem from the actual post.

My dramatic reenactment:

Phil: Cuccinelli is a jerk! Inhofe is a jerk! Politicians that abuse their power to try to intimidate scientists who come to conclusions they don’t like are jerks! RAR!

Commenter: But what about MY feelings????? How dare you call ME a denier!!! OMG I feel so attacked!!!

I don’t know. Maybe the people writing those comments are actually Cuccinelli and Inhofe under assumed names? Otherwise… goodness, we are getting a little defensive, aren’t we.

Categories
climate change

More on rocks as carbon traps

Conveniently enough, there’s a Scientific American article about the use of basalt as a CO2 sink, which was posted yesterday. I suppose that using basalt for its CO2 sponging abilities isn’t a bad second option; if nothing else, there’s a lot more basalt in the world than there is easily available ultramafic rocks. Basalt is being produced every day from volcanoes, while ultramafic melts would be very uncommon in this day and age. To get an ultramafic rock, you need a much higher degree of melting of the mantle peridotite than you’d normally get, now that the Earth has cooled off a bit.

Depending on the type of basalt, you’ll also get olivine in it, which is what I talked about yesterday as the main constituent of ultramafic rocks, the thing which weathers so nicely once you add a little carbonic acid. I doubt that you could go much less mafic1 than basalt and still get much bang for your buck.

The reason for this comes down to Bowen’s Reaction Series, the terror of all first year students of geology. The reaction series is really just a simplified description of how magmas crystallize, because different minerals are stable at different temperatures and pressures. We’re most concerned with the left side of the series, in this case.

So let’s pretend we’ve got some mafic (but not ultramafic) magma, which spews to the surface and becomes lava. The first thing that will crystallize in it as it starts to cool is olivine. As the lava continues to cool, some of the olivine (not very stable at these low pressures) will react with the remaining melt and begin forming pyroxene. More cooling, and the pyroxene starts converting over to amphibole. Melt composition also plays a big role, but that’s getting a little too complicated for a Tuesday before I’ve had lunch, I think. By the time all your lava has cooled down, you’re going to end up with a mixture of what’s more stable at the surface, such as pyroxene and amphibole.

That’s generally how the reaction series works. The important thing to keep in mind is that the higher you are in that reaction series, the less stable the mineral is at the surface. And the less stable it is, the easier it is for carbonic acid to come along and work its magic. Ultramafic rocks are ideal for this because they’re mostly olivine. Depending on the type of basalt, there are still a lot of minerals that break down very easily, such as pyroxene – and some basalts do have significant amounts of olivine in them still.

This still has the same pitfalls and questions as using the ultramafic rocks, I think. The biggest being, of course, that if you think it takes a long time for an ultramafic rock to weather, it’s going to take even longer for basalt.

I’m also really wondering about the one sort of throw-away statement at the end of the article:

Already, a proposed coal-fired power plant proposed in Linden, N.J. includes plans to pump captured CO2 emissions into an offshore sediment, albeit not a basalt one.

Putting aside the the cringe-inducing phrase “an offshore sediment,” I’m wondering what exactly the goal is, there. Are the sediments in question ones that they expect the CO2 to react with? Are they just hoping the sediments are going to hold on to the CO2 long enough that it’ll be someone else’s problem, which is often the goal when we’re talking about injecting carbon down somewhere deep in the ocean? That’s a little worrying.

1 – Just in case you didn’t know, all this “mafic” business is just a reference to the major non-silica components of the rock. Mafic is shorthand for magnesium/ferric (ferric meaning iron) since there’s a lot of those elements in this sort of rock. You’ll also hear “felsic” which is shorthand for feldspar/silicate, which you find in abundance in rocks like granite.

Categories
climate change

We’re not excited about Peridotite?

Io9 did a post yesterday about peridotite and its ability to soak up carbon dioxide, and mentioned in the first paragraph that no one’s talking about it. And another article that says we’re not excited about it.

I imagine a lot of people haven’t even heard of peridotite, or don’t know what ultramafic rocks are, which is fair enough. Most people aren’t geologists, and have a hard time getting excited about rocks. I actually hadn’t heard of looking at ultramafic rocks for carbon sequestration until I took introduction to Geochemistry last year. After that, yes, I thought it was a pretty exciting concept.

Now, the reason we were talking about this in geochemistry is that the carbon sequestration comes down to a very basic chemical reaction that occurs every day – the chemical weathering of rocks. Most rocks in our lives are some form of silicate; their chemical formula is SiO2 plus some other junk, and the crystalline structure is usually the silica tetrahedra arranged in different ways around the other junk. Most chemical weathering of these silicates comes from CO2 dissolving in rain water to make carbonic acid, H2CO3. Rain is actually naturally a little acidic, since it’s made up of water plus a little carbonic acid. It falls, runs over rocks, and then you end up with something like this:

Mg2SiO4 + 4CO2 + 4H2O ⇌ 2Mg2+ + 4HCO3 + H4SiO4

Where the water and carbon dioxide are what make up the carbonic acid. In this particular equation, the rock in question is olivine, the main constituent of peridotite. So basically, it’s:

Olivine + water + carbon dioxide ⇌ magnesium ions + bicarbonate + silicic acid

So chemically, you can use this kind of reaction to get CO2 out of the air. And peridotite is certainly a good candidate for this kind of reaction. Olivine has a mineral structure that’s basically individual silica tetrahedra jumbled together; it’s not really stable at surface conditions, and it’s easy for the tetrahedra to get picked off by whatever happens to come by. That’s why olivine weathers away much faster than something like quartz, which has a very organized framework and doesn’t allow a lot of room for party crashers. Once you’ve got the olivine broken down via this process, then you can separate out the ions and acid. The magnesium, you could make in to salts, or perhaps there’s a good industrial use for it. The bicarbonate just needs some calcium, and then you end up with limestone, which is the end result we want for getting the carbon chemically locked away. The silicic acid could be precipitated in to amorphous silicate if nothing else.

Honestly, I can’t say why people aren’t excited about this possible solution to getting carbon out of the air. It’s got its problems that need to be figured out for sure, though not necessarily more than any other proposed sequestration method. Off the top of my head:

  • The reaction is normally extremely slow, as noted in the articles, so you do have to find a way to speed it up. And in so doing, a way to speed it up that doesn’t involve producing more carbon via energy usage than what you’re taking out of the atmosphere.
  • Once you’ve got your schmutzed-up former olivine, you still have to put it somewhere. One suggestion my geochemistry teacher had was to just toss it in to old mines, which isn’t really that bad of an idea. But there’s still a question about hauling tons and tons of rock anywhere, to be honest.
  • You’d need to have a good, energy efficient way to get carbon out of the atmosphere and then dissolved in to your water.
  • And I’m sure there are more questions than that. But I also don’t think these are more difficult questions than the ones that come with any proposed carbon sequestration scheme. It even has its advantages; once your carbon is chemically locked in to limestone and you toss that limestone down an old mine, you don’t really have to worry about it again. The dissolution of limestone does release the carbon, but you’re not going to have to worry about that until millions of years in the future, when there’s been some uplift and the contents of the old mine are exposed to weathering. I’d say that’s easier to deal with than figure out how to keep CO2 in gas form from escaping a reservoir you’ve injected it in to.

    Most people I’ve explained this to have thought it was actually a very exciting idea, if one that’s so far just on paper. The big thing is that very few people have even heard about it, as is pointed out in the articles I’ve linked to. Maybe it’s because it’s difficult to get most media excited about talking rocks, unless we’re talking molten rocks that are poised to destroy a town, and then they’re all over it. Of course, one might argue that it’s more important to pump money in to research on finding energy sources that aren’t going to produce so much carbon dioxide. Fair enough, but until we get there it really wouldn’t hurt to figure out how to stuff at least some of that excess CO2 back under the global couch cushions, so to speak. Or I suppose there are some that might say that none of this is a matter of concern, but I think I’ve already established that I wouldn’t want to sit next to them on the bus anyway.

    Categories
    climate change colorado

    Another bit on climate-gate.

    Mike Littwin did a lovely opinion piece in the Denver Post about it today. I don’t often read the local paper (unless they inexplicably have cattle mutilations as the front page story, as if the health care debate and even Tiger Woods had ceased to exist), and I hear a lot from my mother about how the opinion pieces in the paper practically slosh with crazy these days. But it looks like at least some of the time, they’re getting it very right.

    There is nothing particularly new in doubting what you don’t understand. There are flat-earthers even today. But some things have changed. The Internet has made more information available to more people than ever before. But it also has led to what you might call a democratization of the facts, in which everyone’s “facts” turn out to be equal.

    Indeed.

    Categories
    biology climate change

    A bouquet of Jellyfish and Algae

    Jellyfish swarm northward in warming world

    Harmful Algal Blooms – HABs

    So, Japan is being invaded by swarms of jellyfish, and we’re being inundated with stinking, toxin oozing slime of the variety that doesn’t carry firearms to townhall meetings. The simple fact sheet on the algae doesn’t speculate as to cause, but the jellyfish are being pretty strongly linked to rising ocean temperatures.

    Really, the jellyfish article is fascinating. I’m still trying to wrap my mind around the image of a fishing boat capsizing due to a net bulging with giant, alien-looking jellyfish.

    Hm… I wonder if that means out the next bizarre theory about what took out the dinosaurs will be jellyfish… of DEATH. Or maybe the jellyfish are in cahoots with the algae. You never know.